An anticipated standoff between Pakistan and the US over the terms of an aid package looks as if it may be averted following discussions in the Pakistan Parliament yesterday. During the debate Prime Minister Gilani said he would seek a consensus on the US aid bill which was approved by Congress last week. Gilani seemed to dismiss concerns raised by the opposition and the military that the conditions attached to the aid package infringed on Pakistani national sovereignty, announcing that the Pakistan foreign minister would be recalled from the US to resolve the debate. In a coordinated effort to sweeten the image of the package, Galani reassured his opponents that the conditions were only attached to security aid while the US also played down the severity of the conditions. Pakistani news outlets reported today that Obama would not delay the signing of the aid bill.

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The ToD Verdict:  Pakistan is likely to continue to be highly sensitive to apparent infringements of its sovereignty. Although Pakistan is largely in agreement with the US about the need to fight the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the government has been criticised for giving their tacit consent for US drone attacks that have been responsible for civilian as well as militant deaths. Pakistan will be keen to ensure that such outside interventions do not extend any further, and has attempted to show its mastery of the security threat in Western Pakistan through a series of offensives, the latest of which, in South Waziristan, is currently in preparation. However, it seems unlikely that Pakistan will reject the aid or risk its relationship with the US.

The US similarly appears unlikely to waive the conditions of its support for Pakistan. Opposition to the aid bill drew strong comments from one US representative in particular. The US also said on Tuesday that they will ensure that this aid package will not be diverted from its intended target. Indeed, the US genuinely needs Pakistan to use the money to support US operations in Afghanistan. Reports earlier this year suggested that a significant proportion of aid to Pakistan been diverted from supporting Pakistani operations near the Afghan border and instead was being used to bolster Pakistani military readiness more generally. Neighbouring India has long been concerned about US aid to Pakistan for this reason and would likely resist any relaxing of US oversight. India's concerns will not be allayed by former-President Musharraf's recent admission that US aid had been used to strengthen defences against India. The Pakistani government continues to deny reports that they are siphoning funds aimed at fighting the Taliban.

Bomb targets Indian Embassy in Kabul

A large blast went off outside the Indian Embassy in Kabul today. The explosion, thought by local police to be caused by a car bomb, killed twelve and wounded 83. No embassy workers were killed in the blast, which was largely absorbed by blast walls surrounding the building, but Indian nationals employed on the perimeter were injured. The blast also caused damage to a market building across the road that houses the Afghan Interior Ministry. The Indian Ambassador said that the blast was of the same intensity as last year's 7 July bombing of the embassy which killed four Indian nationals, among them the defence attaché and a senior diplomat.

The attack comes a day after the Indian foreign secretary addressed a conference in New Delhi on improving the situation in Afghanistan. He claimed India and Afghanistan shared a strategic partnership based on historical, cultural and economic ties and described the significant aid India provides to Afghanistan. He also called on the international community to further assist in creating stability in the country.

Guinea junta

Guinea may face further upheaval after a member of the military junta in command of the country attempted to arrest the aide-de-camp to Junta leader Captain Moussa Dadis Camara for his role in the mass killings of civilians in anti-government protests on 28 September. The incident suggests an emerging rift within the leadership who have resisted calls for an investigation into the killings and stood against outside attempts to intervene.

The protests were convened in response to Camara's, announcement that he would stand in elections to be held early next year. The junta took power and suspended the constitution in a military coup following the death of President Conte in December. Their assumption of power attracted predictable international condemnation, with US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton  the latest to speak out against the Guinean regime this week, urging the junta to step down and allow the people to elect their leaders.

Armenia and Azerbaijan meet to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh

Leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia will meet today for group talks as part of the OSCE Minsk process to settle control over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. A ceasefire was signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1994, but tensions have continued. Of particular contention is Armenia's continued occupation of Upper Garabagh and six other regions in Azeri territory home to separatists supported by Armenia. Armenia continues to demand full independence in the occupied regions but Azerbaijan wants them returned, promising autonomy but not independence.

The relations between the two countries are remain fractious with Azeri media reporting yesterday that Armenia had broken the terms of the ceasefire. Much hangs on the talks for Armenia. Its relations with Turkey, while thawing, are likely to be contingent on a cooperative approach being pursued with Azerbaijan. Armenia would benefit from increased trade following the opening of its borders with Turkey and the restoration of severed diplomatic relations.

Madagascar power share deal in doubt

Exiled former-president Marc Ravalomanana said today that he would not sign a power sharing agreement with Andry Rajoelina who took power in a military backed coup in March this year. The coup was widely condemned and the two parties eventually agreed to commit to a power sharing deal, under which Rajoelina will abstain from standing for election for a second term. Rajoelina remains reluctant to accept the proviso and Ravalomanana is refusing to sign until he does. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has urged the parties to come to an agreement.

The Maputo Political Agreement, as the power sharing arrangement is known, was reached on 9 August following months of turmoil and political violence and commits the signatories to create a government of national unity. Since, the parties have failed to agree on who should serve as president, vice-president or prime minister in any transitional government.

Jerusalem strike unlikely to lead to violence

A one day general strike in Jerusalem and the West Bank called by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is unlikely to escalate into an uprising, claimed Israeli Vice-Prime Minister Silvan Shalom. The last two weeks have seen several small-scale protests in Jerusalem, apparently following a clash at the al-Aqsa mosque on the eve of Yom Kippur. The mosque has been the site of bloody battles in the past and access to the site, holy to both Muslims and Jews, is controlled by Israeli police.

Tensions are likely to continue until the resumption of peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders. The possibility of a return to direct talks remains uncertain, with US envoy to the middle east George Mitchell telling Israeli President Shimon Peres on Thursday he was ‘hopeful' they would resume soon whereas Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman warning the very same day that peace seemed ‘impossible'.